The President of Latvia. Edgars Rinkēvičs this week attended the World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland. In the light of recent press reports discussing Russian hostilities focused upon the Baltics and NATO members as soon as in early 2025, President Rinkēvičs had the following comment on his Facebook page on January 17, 2024.
“There is a lot of talk in society, in the media and among experts about whether a Russian attack on a NATO country is possible, perhaps within 3-10 years. NATO training scenarios, opinions and analyzes on this topic appear in the press.”
The situation in Europe and the world is complicated, it is difficult to predict the development of events even on an annual basis, therefore we need to prepare for all scenarios without a sense of doom, doing it thoughtfully and rationally. Currently, a lot is determined by the course of hostilities in Ukraine, which gives us all the opportunity and time to prepare. That is why it is critically important to provide as much support to Ukrainians as we can and encourage others to do the same. With the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Riga last week we agreed on very specific political and practical steps to support Ukraine this year.
I understand people's concern and anxiety, so I will outline a few things here about our safety.
Latvia is a member of NATO and the EU, there are no other better security guarantees for us and other countries in the region. At the same time, the responsibility for our country lies primarily with us. This means that, without questioning the readiness of our allies to defend us, we ourselves must be able to do so first, in order to expect additional support at the possible X hour. The better prepared we are, the less likely Russia will attack. Therefore, the following task needs to be prioritized, amongst others.
First, strengthening the country's eastern border against hybrid attacks by completing the construction of a fence and securing it with video surveillance and sensors.
Secondly, the establishment of the military infrastructure along the eastern border. The Ministry of Defense and the National Armed Forces are preparing specific measures in this regard.
Thirdly, further strengthening of the national defense service, applying not only the principle of voluntariness, but also introducing a lottery system. This will be a test not only for the defense system, but for us as a society in general. This is in addition to the development of the army reserves and the National Guard, as well as the completion of the professional service.
Fourth, the construction of military infrastructure (including the Selonia Military Training Area) to ensure the appropriate accommodation and needs of the Allied armed forces.
Fifth, the development of Latvia's military industry. Although several important supply contracts have been concluded for strengthening anti-aircraft defense capabilities, etc., there are still things that we must be able to be produced by ourselves, and associated technologies that we can develop by ourselves.
Sixth, the transformation of the civil defense and crisis management system learning from the experience of Ukraine (there is still a lot to do here).
Seventh, a much tougher approach to crimes against national security. Some changes are taking place, but the judiciary must understand that these are no longer peaceful time.
Finally, strengthening of our electoral system. If some time ago lies and misinformation in social networks were a big problem, now the application of artificial intelligence in the election campaign and beyond is becoming a new challenge. Here, too, both legal and practical solutions are needed at the national and international level.
I definitely support the eventual termination of economic relations with the aggressor countries (Russia/Belarus). Although this cannot be done immediately, the country (Latvia) has enough tools and means to do it nationally and to create a common understanding in the region and Europe. The current work in the Saeima and the government on various proposals, is ongoing and I hope that it will soon will also result in specific decisions. An equally important step is the disconnection of the Baltics from the Russian/Belarus power grids and the connection to the European energy system at the beginning of next year. A significant increase in funding for the Home Affairs sector in the coming years should be a given.
In the diplomatic arena, there is constant work with our allies to strengthen the Eastern flank, provide support to Ukraine and get rid of illusions about Russia. The mobilization of the European defense industry is taking place, but very slowly. This, too, is one critical question that must be constantly brought to everyone’s attention. Although periodic reports of NATO defense planning, exercises and estimates of potential conflict are alarming, they also indicate that the Russian threat is being taken seriously and that many allies are preparing for it. We must also constantly repel various types of hybrid attacks (the most famous being propaganda and migration pressure on the eastern border). It should be understood that their nature will also change and vary and this requires constant improvement of the capabilities of our responsible services.
The times we live in are complicated, it is our generation's job to protect our independence. They try to intimidate us, cause disbelief and fear in our own strength and destroy trust in our friends. That too is part of hybrid warfare. Let's not allow it, just as we will not allow a light-hearted attitude towards national security, let's strengthen it in our daily work. Russia and Belarus will not change in the foreseeable future, living with this threat, strengthening our resilience and enduring this time will not be easy, but it can be done and we will do it.”
*On Wednesday, January 17, State President Edgars Rinkēvičs published this opinion, which he shared on Facebook.